March 3, 2025
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March 3, 2025

Know Your Prostate Cancer Risk: Calculator and Risk Factors

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Know Your Prostate Cancer Risk: Calculator and Risk Factors

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In 2025, prostate cancer is expected to be the leading cancer diagnosis among men, with an estimated 299,010 new cases1. This makes it the second most common cancer diagnosis overall, following breast cancer. Prostate cancer accounts for about 15 percent of all new cancer cases in the United States.

One out of every eight men will get prostate cancer. And one out of every 40 men will die from prostate cancer. However, when caught early, prostate cancer is highly curable.

Early detection can start with understanding the disease, knowing your risks by using a prostate cancer risk calculator, and planning for prostate cancer screenings before you have symptoms.

Where Is the Prostate and What Does It Do?

The prostate is part of the male reproductive system. It is a small, donut-shaped gland deep in your pelvis between your bladder and urethra2. It secretes an enzyme called prostate-specific antigen (PSA)3. During ejaculation, PSA aids in sperm motility (ability to move) by liquifying the semen. PSA has long been regarded as an indicator of prostate health4.

What Is Prostate Cancer?

Cancer occurs when abnormal or mutated cells begin to multiply at an uncontrolled rate. This is called proliferation. As the cells grow, they clump together, eventually forming a tumor.

Most types of prostate cancer grow slowly, while some more aggressive types accumulate faster. It’s not clear what exactly triggers prostate cancer5. However, we know some symptoms and diagnostic methods.

Prostate Cancer Symptoms

The presence of symptoms and their severity vary between prostate cancer patients.

Some symptoms of prostate problems are6:

  • Erectile dysfunction
  • Problems with urination
  • Bloody urine and semen
  • Painful ejaculation
  • Inability to ejaculate
  • Persistent pain (back, hip, pelvis, or rectum)

Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer

A healthcare professional may suspect prostate disease if you have some or all of the following:

  • Abnormal DRE
  • Elevated PSA levels
  • Clinical symptoms showing possible signs of prostate cancer (like those listed in the section above)
  • Suspicious results from a prostate risk calculator

You may be given a referral to urology and require further testing, such as an MRI or prostate biopsy. Often, doctors won’t order an MRI until after the biopsy, which is unfortunate since an MRI could prevent an unnecessary negative biopsy.

Doctors use results from clinical tests to diagnose and stage prostate cancer. Staging assigns a value to the cancer, which helps determine treatments and provide context regarding prognosis.

One tool doctors use is the Gleason Score7. After a prostate biopsy, a pathologist or cytotechnologist will look at the tissue under a microscope. They observe the biopsied cells for differences and similarities to normal cells. Cancer cells that look more like normal tissue get lower Gleason Scores.

What Are Prostate Cancer Risk Factors?

Prostate cancer risk calculator: elderly couple sitting on their couch

Age is a common risk factor for prostate cancer8. The disease is less common in men under 50. The rate increases after men reach 60.

Lifestyle factors such as diet, lack of physical activity, smoking, and exposure to harmful substances may play a role in getting prostate cancer.

Ethnicity plays a role in the risk of prostate cancer as well. In the United States, the risk is almost two times higher in black men than in white men. Black men who get prostate cancer earlier are more likely to have more aggressive cancer, or high-grade prostate cancer, when diagnosed and tend to suffer poorer outcomes.

Prostate cancer has a higher rate of occurrence in the United States, Australia, Northern Europe, Canada, and Mexico. Men from low-incidence countries like India who move to high-risk areas in North America experience a convergence of prostate cancer risk, as their risk increases to match the local population in just two years9.

Having a close family member with a history of prostate cancer increases your risk as well. This incidence is thought to be due to a shared environment and shared genes. Patients with a family history of prostate cancer account for about a fifth of all cases10.

Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators

Prostate cancer risk calculators, also called nomograms, use prediction models for risk assessment or risk estimates. Doctors use prostate cancer nomograms from screening through prostatectomy, chemotherapy, and radiation.

Some were designed for patients to use. Their version, created by researchers at Kaiser Permanente, helps patients and their doctors better understand the risk of getting prostate cancer11. The goal is to have more informed decision-making regarding screenings.

Another, the SWOP prostate cancer risk calculator, is actually multiple nomograms (six for doctors and two for patients)12.

Available online or as an iPhone or Android app, these prostate cancer risk calculators allow patients with no medical knowledge to safely assess their risks for getting prostate cancer based on various data points.

  • Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator #1 is for patients who do not have a PSA result13.
  • Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator #2 is for patients with a recent PSA.
Disclaimer: No prostate cancer risk calculator is 100% accurate. Your results are meant to be shared with your doctor, so they will help interpret your results and possibly refer you to a urology specialist for further testing at a medical center or to a radiology center for a scan.

PSA and Prostate Screening Methods

Prostate cancer detection methods have traditionally comprised a digital rectal exam DRE and prostate-specific antigen PSA testing. Today, a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan with IV contrast may be able to detect and exclude high-risk prostate cancer reliably.

Currently, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends that men aged 55 to 69 and their primary healthcare provider decide about screening for prostate cancer14.

If you’re having symptoms of prostate dysfunction, your healthcare provider may want you to do a blood test to measure your free PSA. This will tell them the amount of PSA currently circulating in your bloodstream.

The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) found a 21% reduction in prostate cancer mortality by measuring PSA levels15.

But an elevated level doesn’t always mean you have cancer. Other conditions, such as benign prostatic hyperplasia (BHA), can raise your PSA to as much as 2.5 times the normal value16.

Some studies suggest that urinary tract infections, prostate stimulation, and inflammation may cause elevated PSA tests17

Other Types of Prostate Screening Methods

Elevated PSA levels may help your doctor decide when to recommend a prostate MRI. Prostate MRIs with IV contrast can also be a part of your prostate cancer screening routine while you’re still healthy.

Digital rectal examinations (DRE) are another type of screening that examines changes manually by palpating the gland via the rectum.

Since some cancers are small and difficult to feel, the results of a DRE may be inconsistent. DRE also has the potential to cause an elevated PSA18.

MRI to Screen for Prostate Cancer

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is another method that can be used to screen for prostate cancer. Unlike a biopsy, this method is painless and non-invasive.

Research published in the Lancet has shown that MRI prostate screening may help some men avoid unnecessary prostate biopsy19. Prostate MRI may also be used to look for prostate cancer in men who had an inconclusive biopsy.

The researchers concluded that using MRI to triage men could have helped 27 percent of patients avoid a primary biopsy. For those men who still undergo a biopsy, directing those biopsies with MP-MRI findings could help detect up to 18 percent more cases of clinically significant cancer.

MRI technology can detect over 90 percent of prostate cancers, as well as other conditions, such as infections or benign prostatic hyperplasia19.

In addition, an MRI procedure can take as little as 20 minutes, compared to a prostate biopsy, which can take between 1-2 hours.

An MRI scan of the prostate can also help providers determine the stage of a tumor, as well as monitor how well the treatment is going20.

Prostate Cancer Survival Rate

The survival rate for all cancers is measured as a percentage. This percentage is based on a five-year relative survival rate calculated by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database21.

A 5-year survival rate tells you the percent of individuals who live at least 5 years after being diagnosed with a certain type of cancer.

As far as prostate cancer survival rates, if you combine all SEER stages (localized, regional, and distant), the five-year relative survival rate is 98%.

This means if you looked at 100 men diagnosed with prostate cancer this year, 98 of them will still be alive in five years (or if they are deceased, prostate cancer isn’t the cause).

If you break down the relative survival rate by SEER stage, men with local or regional prostate cancer have a five-year survival rate of nearly 100%. For men categorized with distant spread, the five-year survival rate drops much lower to 30%21.

The stark difference in survival rates between early-stage prostate cancer and prostate cancer that has spread shows how early detection offers a true advantage for treatment.

Finding prostate cancer early is key to staying healthy after a cancer diagnosis. The prostate cancer survival rate is nearly 100% when found early. 

How Can I Reduce My Risk of Prostate Cancer?

Happy elderly man holding his eyeglasses

The American Cancer Society has outlined a handful of suggestions that could help reduce your chances of developing prostate cancer22. Some studies concerning weight have yielded interesting results: while men who are overweight could have a slightly lowered risk of developing prostate cancer, they could have a higher risk of developing a fatal form of the disease23

In terms of physical activity, the available data is more intuitive: regular physical activity suggests a slightly lowered chance of prostate cancer, with vigorous activity perhaps being even more effective–particularly on the disease’s aggressive, advanced-stage forms24. Data is more clear when it comes to diet; a multitude of studies have hinted that diets rich in fish, as well as some specific vegetables such as legumes, cruciferous vegetables (think broccoli), and tomatoes, could lead to a lower risk of prostate cancer25.

In terms of vitamins and other supplements, data tends to be a bit more murky. Several studies have suggested that men with calcium-rich diets could have a higher risk of prostate cancer, while others have refuted these claims26. A large study known as the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) showed that men taking Vitamin E supplements actually had a slightly higher risk of developing prostate cancer, while men taking selenium supplements saw no change when they had lower baseline levels of the substance at the study’s start27

However, men with higher initial levels of selenium were found to be at a higher risk of developing high-grade prostate cancer.

With the above in mind, the ACS suggests that you28:

  1. Stay at a healthy weight
  2. Be physically active
  3. Eat at least 2.5 cups of various fruits and veggies daily
  4. Consult a physician before taking any vitamins or other supplements
  5. Be aware of other risk factors you may be susceptible to

Cutting-Edge Prostate Cancer Screening

For prostate cancer prevention to be effective, you want to start early while you’re still healthy. Early detection means that you may be able to catch cancer when it is still low-grade and easier to treat.

Get your Ezra Full Body MRI Scan — it only takes one hour, and it screens for potential early cancer and early disease in up to 13 organs, including the prostate. ‍Sign up for a consultation today

Understand your risk for cancer with our 5 minute quiz.

Our scan is designed to detect potential cancer early.

References

1. Common Cancer Sites - Cancer Stat Facts. SEER. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/common.html

2. Singh O, Bolla SR. Anatomy, Abdomen and Pelvis, Prostate. In: StatPearls. StatPearls Publishing; 2025. Accessed February 28, 2025. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK540987/

3. Stenman UH, Leinonen J, Zhang WM, Finne P. Prostate-specific antigen. Semin Cancer Biol. 1999;9(2):83-93. doi:10.1006/scbi.1998.0086

4. Gupta N, Sudhakar DVS, Gangwar PK, et al. Mutations in the prostate specific antigen (PSA/KLK3) correlate with male infertility. Sci Rep. 2017;7(1):11225. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-10866-1

5. How Prostate Cancer Grows. Prostate Cancer Foundation. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.pcf.org/about-prostate-cancer/what-is-prostate-cancer/how-it-grows/

6. Prostate Problems. National Institute on Aging. November 14, 2024. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/prostate-health/prostate-problems

7. Gleason Score and Grade Group. Prostate Cancer Foundation. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.pcf.org/about-prostate-cancer/diagnosis-staging-prostate-cancer/gleason-score-isup-grade/

8. Prostate Cancer Risk Factors | Risk Factors for Prostate Cancer. Accessed July 16, 2024. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/prostate-cancer/causes-risks-prevention/risk-factors.html

9. The Medical Minute: Prostate cancer risks in African American men | Penn State University. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.psu.edu/news/hershey/story/medical-minute-prostate-cancer-risks-african-american-men

10. Vertosick EA, Poon BY, Vickers AJ. Relative Value of Race, Family History and Prostate Specific Antigen as Indications for Early Initiation of Prostate Cancer Screening. J Urol. 2014;192(3):724-729. doi:10.1016/j.juro.2014.03.032

11. Rochman S. Kaiser Permanente researchers develop new prostate cancer risk calculator. Kaiser Permanente Division of Research. July 13, 2020. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://divisionofresearch.kaiserpermanente.org/prostate-cancer-risk-calculator/

12. SWOP – The Prostate Cancer Research Foundation, Reeuwijk. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com/

13. Your Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator – SWOP – The Prostate Cancer Research Foundation, Reeuwijk. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com/assess-your-risk-of-prostate-cancer

14. Final Recommendation Statement: Screening for Prostate Cancer | United States Preventive Services Taskforce. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/announcements/final-recommendation-statement-screening-prostate-cancer

15. Pakarainen T, Nevalainen J, Talala K, et al. The Number of Screening Cycles Needed to Reduce Prostate Cancer Mortality in the Finnish Section of the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). Clinical Cancer Research. 2019;25(2):839-843. doi:10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-18-1807

16. Sarwar S, Adil MAM, Nyamath P, Ishaq M. Biomarkers of Prostatic Cancer: An Attempt to Categorize Patients into Prostatic Carcinoma, Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia, or Prostatitis Based on Serum Prostate Specific Antigen, Prostatic Acid Phosphatase, Calcium, and Phosphorus. Prostate Cancer. 2017;2017:5687212. doi:10.1155/2017/5687212

17. Webmaster. What are Some Other Causes of a High PSA? Prostate Cancer Foundation. September 6, 2018. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.pcf.org/blog/what-are-some-other-causes-of-a-high-psa/

18. Screening for prostate cancer - UpToDate. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.uptodate.com/contents/screening-for-prostate-cancer

19. Ahmed HU, El-Shater Bosaily A, Brown LC, et al. Diagnostic accuracy of multi-parametric MRI and TRUS biopsy in prostate cancer (PROMIS): a paired validating confirmatory study. Lancet. 2017;389(10071):815-822. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32401-1

20. The role of magnetic resonance imaging in prostate cancer - UpToDate. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.uptodate.com/contents/the-role-of-magnetic-resonance-imaging-in-prostate-cancer

21. What Are the Survival Rates for Prostate Cancer? Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/prostate-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates.html

22. How to Prevent Prostate Cancer? | Prostate Cancer Prevention. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/prostate-cancer/causes-risks-prevention/prevention.html

23. Vidal AC, Howard LE, Moreira DM, Castro-Santamaria R, Andriole GL, Freedland SJ. Obesity Increases the Risk for High-grade Prostate Cancer: Results from the REDUCE study. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014;23(12):2936-2942. doi:10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-14-0795

24. Shephard RJ. Physical Activity and Prostate Cancer: An Updated Review. Sports Med. 2017;47(6):1055-1073. doi:10.1007/s40279-016-0648-0

25. Diet, physical activity and your risk of prostate cancer. Prostate Cancer UK. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://prostatecanceruk.org/prostate-information-and-support/risk-and-symptoms/can-i-reduce-my-risk/

26. Wilson KM, Shui IM, Mucci LA, Giovannucci E. Calcium and phosphorus intake and prostate cancer risk: a 24-y follow-up study123. Am J Clin Nutr. 2015;101(1):173-183. doi:10.3945/ajcn.114.088716

27. Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT): Questions and Answers - NCI. October 31, 2008. Accessed February 28, 2025. https://www.cancer.gov/types/prostate/research/select-trial-results-qa

28. American Cancer Society Recommendations for Prostate Cancer Early Detection. Accessed July 16, 2024. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/prostate-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/acs-recommendations.html